UMAlumni.com: Bracket Bonanza

Pete Tiernan, ’81, MA’83, is a marketing director for a software company by day, bracketologist by night. Pete has been writing about the NCAA tournament since 1991 and has written on March Madness for ESPN since 2003. He also runs the Web site www.bracketscience.com, where you can find tons more tips and strategies for your pool.

Here are some facts, insights and tips from Pete and his BracketScience.com Web site that might help you in your MB3 picks! Good luck!

Considering that most pools (including MB3) give greater weight to correct picks in later rounds, you’re probably going to need to correctly identify at least three of the Final Four contenders.

The odds of nailing the Final Four are still 1 in 65,536 (16 to the fourth power).

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, only five squads seeded lower than No. 6 have reached the Final Four (No. 8 seed Villanova in 1985, No. 11 LSU in 1986, No. 8 seeds Wisconsin and North Carolina in 2000, and No. 11 George Mason last year).

That #12 seed could make it to the Final Four, right? Think again—the 88 Final Four teams of the modern era are made up of:

36 No. 1 seeds (40.9 percent of semi-finalists)
19 No. 2 seeds (21.6 percent)
12 No. 3 seeds (13.6 percent)
9 No. 4 seeds (10.2 percent)
4 No. 5 seeds (4.5 percent)
3 No. 6 seeds (3.4 percent)
3 No. 8 seeds (3.4 percent)
2 No. 11 seeds (2.3 percent)

What does a winner look like? Analysis shows that the champions are most often:

Seeded between No. 1 and 4 (applies to 20 of 22 champs—and 18 in a row)
Led by a coach with at least three tourney appearances (21 of 22 champs; 17 in a row)
Led by a coach who has made at least one Elite Eight appearance (20 of 22 champs; eight in a row)
Score more than 76 points and win by more than 10 points a game (19 of 22 champs; 18 in a row)
On a pre-tourney winning streak or have just lost a single game (21 of 22 champs; eight in a row)
Have won more than six of their last 10 games (20 of 22 champs; eight in a row)
Have a pre-tourney winning rate above .775 (18 of 22 champs; eight in a row)
Have a frontcourt accounts for more than 35% of their points (every 22 champion)

Get more tips from Pete Tiernan at www.bracketscience.com.